A Quick Look Into Quantum Computing Progression
Welcome to the very first blog. You might be expecting a robotic science nerd to simply outline dictionary definitions on quantum computers… That’s not our vibe here. We prefer to pour the technological tea. This tea is fresh and hot, we might need some cryogenic level cooling in here soon… Okay bad joke. Anyways, lets talk the speed at which quantum computers are improving. Its impressive how quickly more & more qubits are being utilized in QPUs(Quantum Processing Unit). Only the speed at which researchers are finding new uses for them surprises me more.
It feels like more and more companies are jumping on the rocket for quantum computing milestones. Just to name a few who are leading the race: Microsoft, Google, IBM, D-wave, ionQ. All kinds of successful companies are racing for the first fully fledged quantum computer that proves quantum supremacy. Quantum supremacy is essentially a demonstration that traditional computers are surpassed by quantum computers. More specific, proof of superiority in solving problems traditional computers determine are unsolvable in a feasible amount of time(source). As of right now 7-21-2026, it feels like the average timeline everyone is aiming for is 2029. Oddly enough, every day that news is announced on quantum computer milestones; I seem to decrease this timeline mentally in my mind. Given the complexity of the topic, lets assume worst case scenario which is more like 2035-2040 for quantum computers to succeed at widespread practical applications for companies & individuals. Even in this worst case scenario they would be here at a rate that will forever change our understanding of computational power & progression.
If owning a super computer in the year 2035 is equal to racing a mustang, then owning a quantum computer in 2035 will be like racing a fighter jet. The two cant be compared in regards to speed(within the scope of real world applications) or rate of innovation. That said I want to hit the brakes on diminishing traditional computers so hard. I do still believe that they will have a strong place in our future world. Especially for problems that don’t require so much complexity like enjoying smartphones or modern video games. However for large organizations and governments; they will all be running to upgrade their networks to keep up with this new technology.
Alright, alright. So we know they will solve specific things quicker than modern super computers and are coming in hot. So when will these divine devices grace us with their computational prowess? Well, there are various roadmaps that have been announced within the last year that show proof of hitting 2029-2032 timelines. D-wave for example has been transparent and clear targeting 2032 for their first fault tolerant 100 logical qubit system using gate-model quantum computing. Now they are starting with their plan to release a 17 physical qubit system to start this roadmap which is the foundation to their gate-model approach, and potentially proof of concept for their plans. The difference between what a logical qubit is compared to the physical qubit is rather convoluted, but it seems that running logical qubits on top of many physical qubits is key to this technology’s success(source). Although D-wave is the most transparent in their timelines next to someone like IBM, they are not the only ones innovating. Google for example has also recently announced that they have proven quantum supremacy already with their quantum echoes algorithm(source), which further aligns with the argument that quantum is here soon! There are many more signs that point towards this timeline from other companies, so ill task you the reader to look into more examples as homework.
Things in the quantum computer realm are getting exciting and they will only continue to speed up as new cryptography, solutions and milestones explode each week. That said, I hope it provided some insight into how quickly these quantum computers are evolving.
ALSO! I truly appreciate everyone for reading this far, hopefully I sparked your interest in the upcoming quantum computers of the future! If you liked this blog please check out my other ones(here). Stay tuned for theories, and conversations on topics in the world of advanced technology.